Supreme Court Anti-Defection Case Could Fragment PNC's Parliamentary Supermajority

The Supreme Court of the Maldives is set to hear a constitutional challenge to the anti-defection law that has kept the People's National Congress supermajority intact since the 2024 parliamentary elections. The case, brought by a coalition of opposition MPs and civil liberties organisations, argues that the law violates the constitutional right of elected representatives to vote according to their conscience.

Under the current anti-defection provisions, any MP who votes against their party's official position on three or more occasions can be expelled from parliament and forced to seek re-election. This mechanism has given the PNC leadership near-absolute control over legislative outcomes, enabling the passage of controversial measures including the Eighth Amendment referendum bill.

Legal scholars are divided on the likely outcome. Proponents of striking down the law point to Article 75 of the Constitution, which states that members of the Majlis shall vote based on independent judgement. Defenders of the law argue it was enacted through proper legislative procedure and serves the democratic purpose of preventing political horse-trading.

If the court rules the law unconstitutional, as many as 15 to 20 PNC legislators who have privately expressed dissatisfaction with party leadership could begin voting independently. Such a shift would effectively end the supermajority and force the government to negotiate legislation on a bill-by-bill basis, fundamentally altering the political landscape ahead of 2028.